The White House has indicated it is open to the possibility of having all U.S. troops removed from Afghanistan sometime after 2014. According to U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes, a so-called zero-option is “an option that we would consider.” This would entail removal of any and all U.S. military personnel from Afghanistan after the NATO combat operations conclude at the end of 2014. The zero-option runs counter to the recommendation of at least one U.S. military commander in Afghanistan who has encouraged keeping as many as 15,000 troops in the country.
Analysts have suggested the zero-option is motivated, as it was in Iraq, by an inability of the White House to negotiate immunity from the Afghan government for any U.S. troops staying behind.
“As we know from our Iraq experience, if there are no authorities granted by the sovereign state, then there’s no room for a follow-on U.S. military mission,” said Douglas Lute, special assistant to Obama for Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The White House has been proposing keeping 3,000 to 9,000 troops in Afghanistan for the long term. However, whether or not that will happen will depend upon the outcome of ongoing talks between the Obama administration and Afghanistan’s President Karzai. General John Allen, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, has proposed keeping between 6,000 and 15,000 troops in the country.
“I can’t tell that they’re doing that as a negotiating position … or if it is a no-kidding option,” said Jeffrey Dressler, an Afghanistan expert at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War. “If you ask me, I don’t see how zero troops is in the national security interest of the United States.”
Negotiations between the White House and the Karzai administration have shown signs of revival after being stagnant for several months. However, these talks have a reputation for being unstable and prone to sudden collapse.
“There are a lot of scars in this relationship. There are a lot of hurt feelings,” said Michael O’Hanlon, a defense analyst at Brookings Institute. “It’s sort of like a bad marriage and it’s very easy for just the wrong word to immediately set people off in an emotional way.”
