Optimism for a peaceful resolution to Japan-China island dispute

A boat full of activists left Taiwan on Thursday morning and sailed toward the Senkaku a.k.a Diaoyu Islands, a territory that is claimed by Japan, China and Taiwan. The vessel was accompanied by several Taiwanese Coast Guard ships, but about 28 nautical miles from the islands it was ordered to turn back by the Japan Coast Guard. The altercation escalated to the point where the Japan Coast Guard fired water cannon warning shots at the boat. “We don’t provoke, we don’t enter conflict, but we also don’t turn from our firm stance that we will not back down from safeguarding our sovereignty,” Taiwan coast guard commander Chen Shi-chuan said afterwards.

This is just the latest in a string of confrontations over the disputed islands, valued mostly as a fishing resource.

However, new voices in both the Japanese and Chinese government are kindling hope that a peaceful resolution to the conflict can finally be reached. A special envoy from Tokyo met with China’s president-in-waiting Xi Jinping on Friday.

“Japan wishes to pursue ties with China while looking at the big picture,” said Natsuo Yamaguchi, head of New Komeito, the junior partner in Japan’s ruling coalition. “I firmly believe our differences with China can be resolved. We agreed that it is important to continue dialogue with the aim of holding a Japan-China summit between the two leaders.” The fact that both China and Japan have recently experienced a transition of power in their governments gives some reason to hope that the discussion over this territorial dispute will go differently.

“I am cautiously optimistic that there is a chance for the political leaders to change the mode and the mood of tension in the region,” said Yoichi Funabashi, chairman of the Rebuild Japan Initiative Foundation. “The sense of urgency and a potential military crisis over the islands issue already has dissipated in the region. The tension will likely ease and relations can be improved after March if Abe successfully consolidates his power in the election. The Japanese government knows that confrontation with China is not in the interest of Japan, and they will soon realize that economic interests will trump the islands issue.”